The fallacy of declining enrollment

Superintendent Kane desires to close schools in Highlands Ranch in favor of opening new schools in other districts. Her principal motivation for doing so is not clear, but she cites declining enrollment numbers as the reason. In her Feb 3rd communication she states: 

“However, we also have neighborhoods, specifically within Highlands Ranch, where families moved in and settled 20-plus years ago and no longer have school-aged children. In those areas, we have elementary schools that are projected to continue to become smaller. Overflowing schools and shrinking schools result in limiting opportunities for students. We are reaching a point where not only do we need to build elementary schools in fast-growing, new developments, we also need to “right-size” the schools that we currently have so we can maximize opportunities for our students”

The natural ebb and flow of established neighborhoods

It is certainly true that Highlands Ranch is a mature, established neighborhood … a fact that draws many to the neighborhood. However, to make the claim that “people settled in 20-plus years ago and no longer have school-aged children” is simply a misdirection and a self-fulfilling prophecy (and quite inaccurate too).

As older residents retire and move on, the livelihood of a neighborhood is preserved by attracting “new blood” – young families who wish to continue the lifestyle and values promulgated by Highlands Ranch. To continue attracting families to our neighborhood requires a strong school system.  Prospective home buyers with children will consider schools and safety as a primary deciding factor of purchasing a home.

Over the last year many elementary schools in Highlands Ranch have seen a sharp increase in student in-take, requiring splitting classes to accommodate new students.  Today, we still have portable classrooms in many Highlands Ranch schools to accommodate the overflow.

If schools are closed in Highlands Ranch it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy – young families are deterred from moving in. It in essence creates a funnel to drive families to other areas, and introduces a slow but inevitable decay to the fabric of Highlands Ranch. 

Conclusion

Left to the natural ebb and flow of population demographics, Highlands Ranch will see a wonderful continued pattern of attracting new families. It is not accurate to assume that Highlands Ranch will only “age out”, but closing schools all but ensures that outcome.